If you are the parent or grandparent of a young person who is nearing college age, you may want to sit down and grab an adult beverage (even if you are Baptist) before reading this weekend “think piece.”
Ready?
It has been 20 years since I heard my first in-depth (and depressing) lecture on the demographic and lifestyle trends that were going to force the closing of many, many liberal-arts colleges, seminaries and even universities in the decades ahead.
That was way before COVID-19, of course, along with a sharp uptick in online education. Throw in terrifying trends in underemployment for young adults and birth rates that keep falling and, well, you get sobering double-decker headlines like this one at Governing.com:
Plummeting Enrollment Leads More Colleges to Close
College enrollment levels were already projected to decline due to lower birthrates. Recent difficulties with federal financial aid and teens’ growing concerns about cost haven’t helped.
Here is the overture.
This past spring, there were an estimated 9 million undergraduates enrolling in college. That may be the high point for a while. By 2029, the number of high school seniors entering college for the first time could see a drop of nine percent, for four-year schools, to 13 percent, for two-year institutions.
This year, smaller colleges have been closing at a rate of about one per week — up from once a month in 2023.
Read that second paragraph again: “This year, smaller colleges have been closing at a rate of about one per week — up from once a month in 2023.”
If you want a quicker take on this, look at the CBS and NBC reports that are embedded in this post.
Did I mention birth rates? Yes, that is a trend linked to a number of familiar Rational Sheep trends, such as mental-health woes, smartphones, video game addictions and what many are simply calling the “marriage crisis.”
Ask Roman Catholics about the realities behind the priest shortage stats.
All of this stuff is connected, including these emotional and intellectual trends in the hearts and minds of the young:
The current crop of teenagers are more likely than past generations to question the value of higher education. According to a recent Gallup poll, 74 percent of teens aged 13 to 17 plan on attending college. That’s an 11 percentage point drop over the past 20 years, which is largely due to the ever-increasing costs of tuition.
Read. It. All. If you dare. Or wade into this Google search for some relevant terms, with the focus on Christian college trends.
This leads me to a few specifics for parents and grandparents who are Christian believers.
I have a few suggestions (please add your own) for discussions in kitchens, pews and, I hope, pulpits.
Here goes. I will be quick, since this is a crazy weekend. Huge news coming soon from the Mattinglys of East Tennessee, but I will hold off on that for the time being.
Questions to ask when visiting a Christian college — conservative, centrist (in stealth mode) or liberal.
* Does this school have a plan where my child can, perhaps over four to six years, graduate with zero debt? Is there any meaningful form of apprenticeship program?
* Show me the required courses in this school’s liberal arts core curriculum. Please?
* What are the practical details in your school’s lifestyle/morals code that shape life in your dormitories or even off-campus apartments? Do all students sign this covenant?
* What percentage of freshmen and sophomore courses are taught by tenure-track professors?
* Are professors allowed to sign the school’s doctrinal statement with their fingers crossed?
* If this school still has chapel services, can you show me a list of the guest speakers from the past two or three years?
* Is chapel about defending the faith, discussing the faith or even (in stealth mode) attacking the faith?
* May I please have a list of, oh, five or six graduates of your school that are currently having an impact in American life and culture?
Let’s see: What did I miss?
