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‘Wars and Rumors of War’: Iran Responds to Israeli Attack on Embassy With Drone and Missile Barrage…

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‘Wars and Rumors of War’: Iran Responds to Israeli Attack on Embassy With Drone and Missile Barrage…
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“Operation True Promise” redirects here. For the cross-border raid, see 2006 Hezbollah cross-border raid.

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Operation True Promise
Part of the 2024 Iran–Israel conflict, Iran–Israel conflict during the Syrian civil war, and spillover of the Israel–Hamas war

Iranian missiles over the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem
Date 13–14 April 2024[8]
Location
Israel, Golan Heights,[a] West Bank, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria
Result

Both sides claim victory[9]

  • Iranian operational failure and Israeli defensive success; minor damage inflicted to Israeli military sites (Israeli and US claim)[10][9]
  • Iranian operational success and targeted Israeli military sites significantly damaged (Iranian claim)[9]
Belligerents
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Commanders and leaders
Units involved

General Staff[11]

Hezbollah Hezbollah’s military[2]
 Houthis[1]
Islamic Resistance in Iraq[3]
Popular Mobilization Forces[3]

 Israel Defense Forces

Strength

Iran:
~300 aerial threats, including:[15][16]

Per Iran:

  • Hundreds of Shahed 136 suicide drones
  • Tens of ballistic missiles[17]

Hezbollah

Houthis

Israel:

United States:

United Kingdom:

  • Fighter jets

Jordan:

  • F-16 Fighting Falcons
Casualties and losses
  • Per Israel:
  • 99% of projectiles intercepted[20]

Estimated economic cost of less than US$100 million for the attack[21]
Per Iran:

Estimated operational cost of more than US$1 billion (4-5bn shekel) by Israeli defense systems[21]

1 Israeli critically injured by shrapnel;[24] at least 31 others treated for minor injuries from shrapnel or anxiety[25][26][27]
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On 13 April 2024, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of Iran, in coordination with the Popular Mobilization Forces of Iraq,[28] Lebanese group Hezbollah, and the Houthis of Yemen, launched attacks on Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights,[a] with drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles.[29] The retaliatory attacks, codenamed Operation True Promise (Persian: وعده صادق, romanized: va’de-ye sādeq),[30][31] were launched in response to the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on 1 April that killed 16 people.[32] It was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel and the first direct conflict since the start of the Iran–Israel proxy war.[33]

Iran launched a massive standoff attack on Israel on 13 April 2024 with about 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles, and more than 120 ballistic missiles. 99 percent were shot down by defensive measures,[34][35][36][37] most before entering Israeli airspace.[38] Only a few missiles were not downed; one caused minor damage to the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, which remained operational.[39][40][41] Israel used Arrow 3 and David’s Sling systems to shoot down the incoming weapons;[42][43] the United States, United Kingdom, and Jordan also used their own forces to down Iranian drones.[44][45] France deployed its navy.[46]

The IRGC’s Tasnim News Agency said the downed drones were “kamikaze” Shahed 136 drones meant to saturate and overwhelm Israeli air defenses to clear the way for dozens of ballistic missiles in the second wave,[47] which damaged the bases used in the attack on the Iranian consulate.[47][48]

Jordan reported some shrapnel falling on its territory, causing no significant damage or injuries.[39][40] In Israel, one child, a 7-year old Israeli Bedouin girl, was struck and injured by part of a missile.[24] Thirty-one other people suffered either minor injuries from shrapnel while rushing to protected areas or were treated for anxiety.[25] The next day, Iran’s envoy to the United Nations said that the attacks “can be deemed concluded”.[49]

The attack was the biggest drone strike to date[50][51] and the first time since 1991 that Israel itself was attacked by the military of a UN member state.[52]

Iran’s attacks have drawn criticism from the United Nations, several world leaders, and political analysts, who warned that they risk escalating into a full-blown regional war.[53][54][55][56]

Name

Iran named the attack Operation True Promise, a name carrying a symbolic undertone for the Axis of Resistance. In 2006, Hezbollah had called its infiltration of Israeli territory “Operation Truthful Promise”, after its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had pledged that the group would take Israeli hostages and exchange them for the release of imprisoned Hezbollah fighters in Israel.[57] In 2017, after Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani pledged to eradicate the Islamic State, the IRGC media launched a propaganda campaign with the slogan “The True Promise,” claiming Soleimani had kept his promise.[58]

The name “True Promise Corps” (Faylaq al Waad al Sadiq) is also used by an Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia as part of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.[11]

Background

Main articles: Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and Israel–Hamas war
Further information: Iran–Israel proxy conflict

On 7 October 2023, Hamas, a militant organization supported by Iran, carried out an attack in southern Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 people.[59] Israel responded by launching the ongoing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, which, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, has resulted in the deaths of more than 33,000 people so far. Iran has accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians of Gaza.[60][61]

After 7 October, the Iranian-backed proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon began attacking northern Israel.[62] There have been over 4,400 violent incidents recorded between Hezbollah and Israel since the start of the war,[63] and about 100,000 Israelis have been evacuated from northern Israel since the beginning of the conflict.[64]

On 1 April 2024, the Iranian consulate annex building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, was struck by an Israeli airstrike, killing 16 people, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior Quds Force commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and seven other IRGC officers. Soon after the attack, Iran vowed revenge,[65] with reports suggesting this as a potential motive for the airstrike.[66] Iran reported the building was part of the embassy compound, while Israel maintained it was a building used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and located outside the fenced compound of the embassy.[67][68] Numerous countries and international organizations condemned the attack; the United States denied involvement or prior knowledge.[69]

In the weeks following the attack on the consulate, the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom all warned Iran not to attack Israel, stating that such an attack would be a major escalation and could lead to a military response by the West against Iran.[70][71][72] Iran was warned by Israel that such an attack could lead to a direct Israeli military response on Iranian soil.[73] Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait have reportedly taken steps to prevent the US from using its bases in their territories for a possible attack against Iran.[74][75] In early April 2024, Iran sent a message via the Swiss embassy (Interests Section of the United States in Iran) to the United States, threatening to attack the United States military bases in the region in case of their support in a possible Israeli attack.[76][77][78] According to Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, 72 hours before the attack, the regional countries hosting US military bases were informed by Iran regarding the imminent Iranian attack.[79][80]

Attack and response

Drones over Jerusalem
A Shahed drone flying towards Israel
The Chief of the General Staff, LTG Herzi Halevi, conducting a situational assessment at the Israeli Air Force Operations Center in the Kirya with the commanding officer of the Israeli Air Force, the commanding officer of the Operations Directorate, and the commanding officer of the Intelligence Directorate.
Infographic of Iranian strikes on Israel

Iran launched a massive drone and missile attack on Israel targeting, among other unconfirmed trajectories, sites in the Golan Heights, in the Arad region, and two airbases in the Negev desert[29] on the evening of 13 April 2024.[81][82][83] The attack consisted of more than 200 missiles and drones according to The Washington Post[81][82][84][85] and included ballistic missiles according to Iranian news agency IRNA.[86] Both CNN and Reuters later reported that more than 300 standoff weapons had been launched toward Israel.[34][35]

According to the Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, the primary targets included the Nevatim Airbase from which Israel launched the attack on the Iranian consulate, as well as the intelligence center in the Israeli-occupied part of Mount Hermon which supplied the intelligence. The operation was intentionally limited to a retaliatory attack against the Israeli attack on Iranian consulate.[87][48] Other targets included the Ramon Airbase in the south of Israel.[88] Tasnim published videos of targets being hit.[48]

According to Tasnim, the tactic used consisted of saturating the Iron Dome and David’s Sling with a first wave of hundreds of HESA Shahed 136 kamikaze drones, followed by launching tens of ballistic missiles as the second wave of attack, which according to Iran managed to pass the Israeli air defense system.[17]

The attack was named Operation True Promise[89] (Persian: وعده صادق, romanized: va’de-ye sādeq),[90] with the code name Ya Rasul Allah (یارسول‌الله(ص)).[22] Some of the released videos indicated the use of Shahed 136 drones.[91]

British warplanes shot down an unspecified number of Iranian drones, according to American officials and Israeli Channel 12.[92] The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous French officials, reported that France was deploying naval assets to assist Israel.[6]

CENTCOM reported late the following day that US forces destroyed more than 80 one-way attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles.[35]

Hezbollah said it launched dozens of Grad rockets at an Israeli air defense site in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The group said the attack took place shortly after midnight local time.[2]

At approximately 2:00 a.m. local time on 14 April, explosions were heard in Jerusalem, while air raid sirens sounded across Israel, the West Bank, and the Dead Sea. It is unknown whether the explosions were interceptions by the Iron Dome or missile strikes.[93] Iranian missiles above the Al-Aqsa Mosque were intercepted.[94] Tel Aviv and Dimona, which is home to a nuclear facility, were also targeted.[95]

Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Kuwait, and Israel all closed their airspace in response to the attacks, with Iranian airspace being closed to VFR-only flights,[96][97][98] and Egypt put its air defense on high alert.[99] Iran warned Jordan against providing any possible support for Israel.[100] During the attack, the IDF jammed electronic guidance systems to disrupt missile navigation.[101]

The head of US CENTCOM went to Israel on April 11, to coordinate air defenses.[102][103]

Residents in Amman, the capital of Jordan, reported seeing flashes in the sky above the city.[104] In the city’s Marj al Hamam area, residents gathered around the remains of a large drone that had been intercepted.[105]

An Israeli military spokesman said Iran launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, of which 99% were successfully intercepted.[36] According to IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari, approximately 350 rockets were launched at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.[106] IDF jets struck military targets in southern Lebanon belonging to Hezbollah’s Radwan forces.[107] Most drones over Syria were shot down by Israel, according to U.S. intelligence sources.[108]

The United States, United Kingdom, and Jordan also used their own forces to intercept Iranian projectiles,[109][105] and France deployed its navy to provide radar coverage.[14]

Result

Casualties

There were no deaths reported from the strikes, however a number of injuries were reported. A 7-year-old Bedouin girl was seriously injured by shrapnel from an interception in the Arad area.[110][26] At least 31 others were treated for minor injuries sustained from either shrapnel while going to protected areas or for anxiety.[25][27]

Economic losses

A former financial adviser to the IDF chief of staff, brigadier general Reem Aminoach, said Israel spent US$1 billion (4–5 billion shekels) to defend against the strikes.[111] Iran is reported to have spent only 10% of that amount to launch its operations, approximately US$100 million.[21]

Aftermath

Hours after the beginning of the attacks, Iran’s envoy to the United Nations stated that the retaliatory attack “can be deemed concluded”, and that Iran will respond with “stronger and more resolute” actions if Israel were to “make another mistake”. It also urged the US to stay away from the Iran-Israel conflict.[112][37][49] President Ebrahim Raisi said that Iran had taught a “lesson” to Israel through the attack as the Supreme Leader promised.[113]

Iraq, Jordan, and Israel reopened their airspace soon after the attacks were over.[114][115] More than two flights (Wizz Air and Royal Jordanian) were diverted to Cyprus with over 700 passengers.[116][117] The Cyprus Air Command alongside the two main airports on Cyprus were also placed on high alert as a result of the attack.[118] Demonstrations broke out in cities across Iran and in the Gaza Strip[119] in support of the strikes.[120]

The effective interception has led to an increase in the stock prices of Israeli defense firms, such as Elbit Systems, Aerodrome Group, NextVision, and Aryt Industries.[121]

Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran.[122]

IRGC boss called the attack tremendous success, that from now on they will attack directly. IRGC secret service threatened they will go after Iranians who express anti Iranian regime sentiment online.[123][124][125]

Analysis

The Economist wrote that “the strike was militarily a flop”, adding that Iran “may have miscalculated”.[41]

According to CNN, the attack by Iran was “planned to minimize casualties while maximizing spectacle”, and noted that Iranian drones and missiles went past Jordan and Iraq, both with US military bases, and all the air defenses before penetrating the airspace of Israel.[126]

Al Jazeera opined that Iran, in no longer relying solely on its proxies, launching its first attack on Israel from its own soil, its largest missile attack, and the largest drone strike in military history, has increased both its deterrence and its soft power in the wider Muslim world.[127]

The Jerusalem Post noted that the Iranian attack demonstrated that the events of 7 October did not undermine the Israel–Sunni regional alliance.[128]

The Wall Street Journal noted that the “success was due to a combination of Israel’s sophisticated air-defense system and critical assistance provided by the US and other Western and Arab partners.”[38]

Dov Zakheim, a former undersecretary of defense in the George W. Bush administration, stated that “Iran is an existential threat in a way the Palestinian issue is not”, thus bringing to the fore American deterrence vis-à-vis Iran.[129] John Bolton called the attacks “a massive failure of Israeli and American deterrence.” He called Biden’s disapproval of counterattack an embarasment.[130][131]

Reactions

US President Joe Biden and his national security administration assessing the attack in the Situation Room.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a call with G7 leaders discussing the attack.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian declared that Iran does not welcome escalation, and the purpose of the Iranian operation was the exercise of the legitimate right of Iran for self-defense.[132] The Iranian government declared its reprisal against Israel a success and concluded.[133]

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said IDF halted the attack impressively.[134] Gallant stated that the attack was successfully repelled with the assistance of the United States and other countries. He emphasized the opportunity to form a strategic alliance to counter the serious and possibly nuclear threat posed by Iran.[135] Israel vowed “a significant response” to Iran’s retaliation.[136]

Hamas said that the Iranian military operation against Israel was a “natural right and a deserved response” to the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus and assassination of IRGC leaders there.[137] The Houthis said that the attacks were a legitimate response to the strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.[138]

International

Canada and the United States both condemned the attack, and the United States said it would support Israel against Iran.[139][140] Saudi Arabia called for restraint, and said that the United Nations Security Council must take responsibility for maintaining peace and security in the region.[104]

On 14 April, protesters in Toronto cheered the airstrikes, chanting “Allahu Akbar!” A protest leader characterized the strikes as a response to Israeli airstrikes in the region, while Melissa Lantsman, a member of parliament, said that the chants showed “It was never about a ceasefire”. Other chants included “Intifada, Intifada, long live the Intifada” and “From the water to the water, Palestine is Arab”.[141]

One of the first leaders to respond to the attack was British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, stating: “The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq.”[142][143] The United Kingdom condemned the Iranian attack on Israel as “reckless”.[144]

US President Joe Biden shortened a planned visit to Delaware and returned to the White House to meet with national security officials.[145] Biden called the intercepted attacks a win for Israel,[146][147] and committed to a unified diplomatic response from the G7.[148] The Embassy of the United States in Jerusalem posted a security alert urging its workers to seek shelter until further notice.[149]
Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not back Israel in a possible future counter-attack against Iran.[150][146] US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asked Israel to give the United States advanced notice if they planned to attack Iran.[151] Overall, the US president sought to prevent further escalation.[152]

On 14 April, Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh stated that any regional escalation would lead to “dangerous paths”, adding that all parties involved needed to de-escalate.[153] And on the same day, the country’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stated that Jordan would take “all necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty and security and that it will tackle threats facing its citizens.[154][155]

On 13 April, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides called for an emergency meeting of the National Security Council which was held on 14 April to discuss the developments in the region.[156][157] Additionally, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the attack on Israel.[158] Furthermore, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a precautionary measure enacted the “Estia” plan.[159][117]

Other countries

Celebrations in Beirut as the attack was announced
  •  Argentina: President Javier Milei expressed “solidarity and unwavering commitment” to Israel, and said he “emphatically support[s] the State of Israel in the defense of its sovereignty”. Milei promised that Argentina “will always be on [Israel’s] side.”[160] Milei also accused Iran of “seeking the destruction of Western civilization.”[161]
  •  Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada unequivocally condemns Iran’s attacks against Israel, stands with Israel, and that “we support Israel’s right to defend itself”.[162]
  •  China: The Foreign Ministry urged restraint and called the attack “the latest spillover of the Gaza conflict”.[163]
  •  Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the Iranian attack as “unjustifiable and highly irresponsible”, and assured that “Germany stands by Israel”.[164]
  •  Japan: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed “strong condemnation” and “deep concern” over the Iranian attack,[165] while Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa said the attack further aggravated the situation in the Middle East.[166]
  •  Russia: The government said that it was very concerned by the Iranian strikes on Israel.[167] A statement by the Foreign Ministry noted that the Iranian retaliatory attack was in accordance with the Article 51 of the UN Charter[168] and called for all parties to exercise restraint and that it had warned about an increase in tension because of “numerous unresolved crises in the Middle East”.[167]
  •  Singapore: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the strikes on Israel and added that they “exacerbate tensions” and “further destabilise an already tense region”.[169][170]
  •  Turkey: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated on a phone call to his Iranian counterpart that Turkey did not want further escalation following Iran’s retaliation on Israel. The Iranian Foreign Minister told Fidan that its “retaliatory operation” against Israel had ended, adding that Iran would not launch a new operation unless it was attacked.[171]
  •  Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strikes on social media, saying “Iran’s actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia’s actions threaten a larger conflict”.[172] The Foreign Ministry condemned Iran’s attack as “unacceptable and irresponsible” and called for efforts to prevent a “larger regional conflict”.[173]

International organizations

See also

Footnotes

  1. ^ a b Internationally recognized as Syrian territory

References

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